I. Introduction
I read solicitous accolade written by several Ethiopians in Websites, who seem to have been mesmerized by the make-belief world of sham economic lullaby being sung by Meles and associates, in the same way a rodent is mesmerized by the hypnotic movement of a cobra before getting swallowed. I read also unabashedly solicitous similar chorus of grateful Ethiopians singing mugesa and qererto to the �great economic� outlays made by Shiek Mohammad Alamoudi without critically appraising how deeply debt ridden Alamoudi�s investments could be in Ethiopia. If one was to examine carefully his labyrinth of financing and investment, I believe that he has by now recovered all of his personal initial capital outlay by taking advantage of the exchange rate of the weak Ethiopian Birr, and mostly through leveraged recapitalization by loans or outright selling to �blind investors� his interest in instruments that could be easily unloaded in major hard currencies. If there is any down turn of events, the Ethiopian Banks that have advanced huge short and long term loans will end up holding on to empty bags of assets extremely overvalued in an economic system so primitive one must hesitate to use international capital market language. 

One must guard against any businessperson who claims to have no profit motive in his investment. Such a man is either a charlatan to be avoided at any cost or a shrewd businessperson who must be scrutinized carefully. I prefer investors who invest in Ethiopia because they believe there is money to be made than those who �invest� as a charity. First of all that is an oxymoron�investment/charity. Most importantly such approach of �charity� to investment creates several undesirable situations burdening the economic development effort of Ethiopia with anti competition and self-serving schemes. In the case of Alamoudi, it created an unhealthy close cooperation between the many companies controlled by Meles Zenawi and associates and the regulatory organs of the Government of Ethiopia. It has a stifling monopolistic hold on the economy of Ethiopia. At any rate, the remedy is not to discourage Alamoudi and other investors from the Arab world from investing in Ethiopia, but rather to create a system that will be impervious to corruption and monopolies, and to cut back the �gratitude� based accolade of mugesa and qererto, and see investors as profit making enterprising individuals and not as some kind of gods.

Real social and economic development cannot be measured by few glittering buildings in Addis Ababa or Mekelle et cetera, or by building first class hotels catering exclusively for the rich (overpaid executives of international organizations, Diplomats et cetera), or a couple of highways, or facades and shells of universities and colleges et cetera. The overwhelming majority of the people of Ethiopia live in abject poverty and under the worst form of political oppression. Even those hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians living in Addis Ababa lead a life of great deprivation capable only of having a meal of sort once per day. Most Ethiopians living in rural Ethiopia have no access to clean water, health care, educational facilities et cetera. One helpful indicator closer to the reality of life in Ethiopia is the evaluation of a more holistic quality of life as reported in the United Nations Human Development Report/ Index (HDI). The 2007 HDI lists Ethiopia 169 out of 177 countries. Even tiny �Eritrea� is ranked at 157. Such a rank for Ethiopia is not indicative of development, but of degradation and suffering. The fact that there are some highly successful individuals living the life of luxury in Ethiopia does not blunt the sting of poverty on tens of millions of Ethiopians. [1] 

Ethiopia will not heal from its multiple political and economic wounds as long as Meles Zenawi and his Government are in power and implementing disastrous domestic and foreign policies. Meles Zenawi has committed one too many serious crimes against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ethiopia that there is very little I expect from him or his government that will benefit Ethiopia and Ethiopians. What I am hoping for is that there will be minimal permanent damage to Ethiopia and the long-suffering Ethiopians until the time Meles is removed from power and his fascistic political organization is dismantled. Meanwhile, day by day, things are getting more and more disastrous. [2]

II. United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) 
Meles continued to commit even more treason against the vital interest of Ethiopia since his participation as coconspirator in the 1993 Eritrean independence farce. Meles continued his anti-Ethiopian policy by forcing on the people of Ethiopia the treasonous 2000 Algiers Agreement, and by his reluctant presentation of the Ethiopian side at the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (Commission), et cetera. In 2007, he gave up Ethiopian territory to Sudan. In 2008, he is using the inefficient United Nations as his tool to deliver once again Ethiopian territory to the Eritrean Government further damaging the territorial integrity and Sovereignty of Ethiopia. �The Secretary-General has, therefore, informed the Security Council that if the fuel supplies are not reinstated by 6 February, he will be compelled to instruct UNMEE to begin relocating the Mission�s personnel and equipment from Eritrea, on a temporary basis.�[3] Meles is carrying out the ultimate treason by ceding Ethiopian Territory to Eritrea fulfilling the corrupt Commission�s decision, using as an excuse the United Nations� desire to relocate United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) and create a Security Zone fifteen miles deep within Ethiopia. 

The obvious question is where the baseline is going to be in forming the new Security Zone. I submit to you that the baseline will be drawn in such a way that will satisfy the so-called �virtual demarcation� the corrupt Commission entered illegally as part of its last act. Of course, Meles Zenawi has stated that he will not accept such final demarcation on paper. Such statement by an individual who has perfected the art of equivocation and double intenders has no value in reaching a secured equitably designated border delimitation and demarcation that will reflect Ethiopia�s historical reality and its current vital interest in its Ethiopian Afar coastal territories and its sovereignty of its historic territorial waters on the Red Sea. 

The Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (�Commission�) issued a Statement on 27 November 2006, paragraph 22 of which set out: As the Commission evidently cannot remain in existence indefinitely, it proposes that the Parties should, over the next twelve months, terminating at the end of November 2007, consider their positions and seek to reach agreement on the emplacement of pillars. If, by the end of that period, the Parties have not by themselves reached the necessary agreement and proceeded significantly to implement it, or have not requested and enabled the Commission to resume its activity, the Commission hereby determines that the boundary will automatically stand as demarcated by the boundary points listed in the Annex hereto and that the mandate of the Commission can then be regarded as fulfilled. Until that time, however, it must be emphasized that the Commission remains in existence and its mandate to demarcate has not been discharged. Until such time as the boundary is finally demarcated, the Delimitation Decision of 13 April 2002 continues as the only valid legal description of the boundary.

The ramification of the activities of the Eritrean government in refusing to supply oil fuel to the UNMEE (UN Forces) is far more serious than the local nature of the problem seems to suggest. This is one more conspiratorial scheme that Meles and his counterpart in Eritrea have devised to allow the Eritrean Government occupy further Ethiopian territory by forcing Ethiopians in Kunama, Irob et cetera to be removed further inland for fifteen miles or more in the pretext of creating a buffer zone. By removing the UNMEE (UN Forces) from the Eritrean territory designated �Security Zone� further south into the Ethiopian side of the border, the Eritrean Government would have free access to extend its territorial claim within Ethiopia covering all the land that the Commission has wrongly decided to be Eritrean. 

As long as the Security Zone is on the Eritrean side it has proven difficult for the Eritrean Government even to place its soldiers within its own territory designated by the UN as the Security Zone let alone occupy what it claims has been awarded to it by the Border Commission because the UNMEE (UN Forces) will be in its way. Because the local population that would have resisted occupation by the Eritrean Government would have been removed under the �Security Zone� scheme within Ethiopia, there would be no such resistance once the new Security Zone is established on the Ethiopian side of the border. Furthermore, even if patriotic Ethiopian commanders decide to take action once the Eritrean occupation occurred, then, Meles will turn around and will accuse such patriotic commanders for creating problems for Ethiopia since they would have to go through the UNMEE (UN Forces) occupied Ethiopian territory in order to expel the Eritrean occupation forces on the other side. 

If the Eritrean Government moves into the area that the Commission had identified on paper and later has asserted that it constituted as the �virtual demarcation� of the boundary, Meles will only protest to the United Nations Security Council, and the Eritrean Government will counter by claiming that it violated no Ethiopian boundary but only is occupying what the Commission has designated as Eritrean territory. The Security Council will be hard pressed in accepting that claim by the Eritrean Government since to do otherwise will be contradicting itself. The maximum reaction by the Security Council might be a very mild censor of the Eritrean Government on protocol (procedure) that it should have waited for a formal diplomatic note rather than marching on its own. Thus, Meles would have once more completed his diabolical mission against Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people. This is very serious challenge to the Sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ethiopia.

The United Nations Secretary General through his administrative responsibility has no right whatsoever to reestablish a security zone within Ethiopia. The issues here are many and complex dealing with international law and practices on questions of sovereignty, state competence, collective security et cetera. This decision by the new United Nations Secretary General to relocate the UNMEE (UN Forces) should not be seen as if it is like some private organization moving from one parking area to another. Any United Nations designated �Security Zone� is a part of the political decision undertaken by the Security Council dealing with issues under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter. The current decision to relocate the United Nations Forces seems to be made under the administrative authority of the Secretariat that has no authority whatsoever to deal with Chapter VII items of the United Nations Charter. 

The New Secretary General does not seem to understand the reason why the �Security Zone� was placed in Eritrea to begin with. It was in recognition of the aggression that was launched by Eritrea in to Ethiopian Territory and its illegal occupation of Ethiopian territory by force. It was not done for the convenience of the UNMEE. If the Eritrean Government fails to abide by the decision of the Security Council, the Secretary General should have simply reported the violation and requested for enforcement procedures that would include sanctions against the Eritrean Government. Why must the World community accommodate a belligerent government that is violating the resolution of the Security Council? 

If the case was that Ethiopia violating such Resolution of the Security Council there would have been some sanction against Ethiopia by now. If Meles Zenawi was a true Ethiopian leader he would have used this opportunity to bring a case for sanction against the Eritrean Government at the Security Council, but he did not because his loyalty is not to Ethiopia but to himself. I have reason to believe that Meles Zenawi does not want any kind of reconciliation and reintegration of Eritrea and Ethiopia. He seems fixated to keep Eritrea at bay feeding to the Eritrean government leadership ego of a sense of being different than the rest of the people of the region. Here we see in the plight of the people of Ethiopia/Eritrea a tragedy that people are being held hostages to the corrupted ideology of self-determination and ethnic federalism imposed on them by individuals who are �alien� in more ways than their professed concerns as liberators. 

III. Economic Consequence of Relocation of the UNMEE

UNMEE (UN Forces) are relocating their administration center to Mekelle, which will bring in some local business boom. This short-term advantage to one local area is not worth the trouble of going through the diplomatic contortion in the process of relocating the UNMEE (UN Forces). In fact, the relocation is inherently divisive and polarizing of the sensitive nature of the relationship of the people in the region. To begin with, it is obvious that the Eritrean Government has fully calculated the consequences of its action forcing the UNMEE (UN Forces) out of Eritrea by refusing to service it with vital resource such as fuel. The Eritrean Government must have a far more important strategy in mind for it to forgo so much needed infusion of hard currency due to it hosting the UNMEE (UN Forces) in Eritrea. Thus, let us not entertain the idea that Meles has once again through his �genius� outmaneuvered the leaders of the Eritrean Government. As I stated in the introduction the entire scheme might be a result of conspiracy to bring to a close the decision of the corrupt Commission �virtual� demarcation that illegally cedes Ethiopian inland and coastal territories. 

The effect of the introduction of relatively better paid groups of individuals into a community with struggling economy has always been a disaster due to steep price increase that results soon after such invasions. Such escalations in price of goods and shortages happen due to the fact that the local market is in a form of permanent recession due to lack of production and oppressive political structure where the supply of goods and services is not reliable. In an economy where the production capacity, distribution systems et cetera are at a stage of pre-industrial period condition, it is a great burden for such existing economy to service the infusion of even a small group of individuals with far more fund than the local population. At any rate, if we consider who will benefit from the relocation, it is not going to be the many little store keepers and small business men and women of Mekelle and vicinity, but the large Corporations controlled by the Leaders of the Ethiopian Government whose beneficiaries mostly live in Addis Ababa, with some crumbs falling off to an insignificant number of individuals such as tavern keepers, few merchants in Mekelle et cetera. In short Meles Zenawi and his associates are opening another opportunity to benefit themselves acquiring a new source of hard currency. 

I believe the best assumption, when faced with programs or decisions made by Meles Zenawi that concerns our country, is to approach such programs and decisions with great skepticism that Meles Zenawi does nothing that will benefit the Ethiopian people anywhere in Ethiopia�whatever he does is for his own glory and narrow self-interest and not for the benefit of the people of Ethiopia. The people of Ethiopia are far better served by not buying into the economic and diplomatic schemes of Meles Zenawi and his Government. He and his Government have caused Ethiopia and the people of Ethiopia to suffer lasting political and economic wounds, such as loss of Sovereignty and territorial integrity of the nation, disruptions of ethnic cohesion, porous economy et cetera. If we do not do not save Ethiopia from these group of individuals, there will be very little left of Ethiopia for us and our succeeding generations. Ω

Tecola W. Hagos
Washington DC 
February 16, 2008

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Endnotes

[1] Excerpt from UNDP, United Nations Human Development Report 2007/2008m, New York, 2007.
Human poverty in Ethiopia: focusing on the most deprived in multiple dimensions of poverty
The HDI measures the average progress of a country in human development. The Human Poverty Index for developing countries (HPI-1) focuses on the proportion of people below a threshold level in the same dimensions of human development as the human development index - living a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent standard of living. By looking beyond income deprivation, the HPI-1 represents a multi-dimensional alternative to the $1 a day (PPP US$) poverty measure. 

The HPI-1 value of 54.9 for Ethiopia, ranks 105th among 108 developing countries for which the index has been calculated.

The HPI-1 measures severe deprivation in health by the proportion of people who are not expected to survive age 40. Education is measured by the adult illiteracy rate. And a decent standard of living is measured by the unweighted average of people without access to an improved water source and the proportion of children under age 5 who are underweight for their age. Table 2 shows the values for these variables for Ethiopia and compares them to other countries. �.

Building the capabilities of women 
The HDI measures average achievements in a country, but it does not incorporate the degree of gender imbalance in these achievements. The gender-related development index (GDI), introduced in Human Development Report 1995, measures achievements in the same dimensions using the same indicators as the HDI but captures inequalities in achievement between women and men. It is simply the HDI adjusted downward for gender inequality. The greater the gender disparity in basic human development, the lower is a country's GDI relative to its HDI.
Ethiopia's GDI value, 0.393 should be compared to its HDI value of 0.406. Its GDI value is 96.8% of its HDI value. Out of the 156 countries with both HDI and GDI values, 141 countries have a better ratio than Ethiopia's. 
[2] There are numerous articles, on the tragic consequences of the types of policies followed by Meles Zenawi and his Government on Ethiopia and the people of Ethiopia, written over the last several years posted in this Website.
[3] Secretary-General SG/SM/11404 AFR/1654, Press Release of 5 February 2008
Department of Public Information � News and Media Division � New York
SECRETARY-GENERAL TO RELOCATE UNITED NATIONS MISSION IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREA FROM ERITREA UNLESS ERITREAN GOVERNMENT REINSTATES FUEL SUPPLIES TOMORROW
The following statement was issued today by the Spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon:

The Secretary-General is deeply concerned about the critical crisis facing the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) as a result of the stoppage of diesel fuel supplies to the Mission by the Government of Eritrea since 1 December 2007. The Secretary-General regrets that, despite the letter he addressed to President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea on 21 January seeking his urgent intervention to resolve the situation, the fuel supplies have not been reinstated and UNMEE has not received the authorization to import fuel directly. Consequently, UNMEE�s fuel stocks will be exhausted in the coming few days. The Mission will be immobilized and rendered unable to carry out its critical functions.

The Secretary-General is especially concerned about the safety and security of UNMEE personnel, particularly those deployed in remote sites where they are dependent solely on generators for energy to power communications and to preserve food and medical supplies. The Secretary-General has, therefore, informed the Security Council that if the fuel supplies are not reinstated by 6 February, he will be compelled to instruct UNMEE to begin relocating the Mission�s personnel and equipment from Eritrea, on a temporary basis.

The Secretary-General emphasizes that the temporary relocation of the Mission�s personnel is a contingency measure forced by the restrictions imposed on UNMEE by the Eritrean authorities, which are endangering the safety and security of the Mission�s personnel, and is without prejudice to the any provisions of the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities of 18 June 2000, including on the Temporary Security Zone. In the meantime, the Secretary-General strongly appeals to Eritrea to cooperate fully with UNMEE, and urges Eritrea and Ethiopia to avoid any action which could undermine the cessation of hostilities between them.
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Letter from the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to the Security Council of 12 February 2008 S/2008/66 
I refer to my letter dated 21 January 2008 drawing the attention of the Security Council to the critical fuel crisis facing the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE). As indicated in that letter, I also sent a letter to Isaias Afwerki, President of Eritrea, on 21 January, as a last resort, appealing for his personal intervention to facilitate the resumption of fuel delivery to the Mission, which was completely stopped by the Eritrean authorities on 1 December 2007. 

I regret to inform you that I have yet to receive a response to my letter to President Afwerki, and the fuel supply has not been reinstated. In addition, UNMEE has not been granted the authorization to import fuel directly or from the United Nations Mission in the Sudan. Consequently, the operations of the Mission are grinding to a halt. UNMEE daily patrols, for instance, have been reduced from some 60 on average before the fuel stoppage to around 20. At the same time, I am also deeply concerned about the safety and security of UNMEE personnel, particularly those deployed at remote sites, where they are solely dependent on generators for energy to power communications and to preserve food and medical supplies. 

The Mission's current fuel stocks will run out in the coming few days, leaving only the strategic reserves, which are intended exclusively for emergency evacuation purposes. I therefore wish to inform you that if the Eritrean authorities do not reinstate the fuel supply by 6 February 2008, I will be compelled to instruct UNMEE to begin relocating the Mission's personnel and equipment from Eritrea in order to avoid total immobilization of the Mission and endangerment of the safety and security of United Nations personnel. 

Under the UNMEE contingency plan, some of the Mission's troops would have to be temporarily relocated to the Ethiopian side until a decision is taken on the longer-term presence of the Mission, while other troops may be concentrated in Asmara for onward temporary evacuation to their home countries. A technical assessment mission led by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations will travel on an urgent basis to Eritrea and Ethiopia to work with UNMEE and the Eritrean and Ethiopian authorities on developing options and recommendations for the future direction of the Mission. In this regard, should Eritrea insist on maintaining restrictions that would endanger the safety and security of UNMEE personnel, I would have to consider the total withdrawal of the Mission and recommend the termination of the Mission's mandate. 

I should emphasize that the Mission's fuel reserves are sufficient only for the emergency relocation of UNMEE personnel. Consequently, the removal of all equipment will require additional fuel and time. It will therefore be essential to secure the full cooperation of Eritrea in this regard. I will keep the Security Council informed of developments regarding the temporary evacuation of the Mission. 
I should be grateful if you would bring this urgent matter to the attention of the members of the Security Council. 
(Signed) Ban Ki-moon 

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