|
CONSISTENCY
WITH THE ENTIRE PROCESSES AFFIRMS NOTHING
UNUSAL
IN ETHIOPIA�S MAY 23RD
ELECTORAL OUTCOME!
By
Genet Mersha, 30 May 2010
The election
ended a week ago Sunday. Many citizens are still in shock by the outcome,
as if there had not been anticipation, sound analysis that had
almost predicted this outcome. Moreover, it was clear that the divided
opposition was not ready to capture power, wrapped up as it has been in
its internal struggles and hounding by the regime. However, in spite of
that it was expected that it would increase its seats in parliament. That
is why it is difficult to make any sense out of 99.6 percent electoral
victory for the ruling party.
Knowing that, the TPLF/EPRDF has ratcheted an all round
propaganda offensive. His eyes on the fifth round national election five
years from now, mark my word, this is only the beginning of Ato Meles�s
bolder moves. Even those TPLF old guards that are to be removed from day
to day public sight after this election would continue in some formto work
toward that objective�with handsome �pensions�, other state benefits
and bundles form EFFORT�s deep pockets. They may not continue in their
present position; but they would surely be placed from where they would
sharpen the regime�s knuckle.
Consequently, May 23rd has vindicated governments,
experts, news sources and civic organisations that in the past few years
have expressed their concerns about the behaviour of the regime. They
foresaw that the laws and regulations Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has put
in place would stifle genuine competition, one sign of which is the
elimination of the opposition from parliament and the continuing
harassment.
As usual, Ato Meles has explanations for everything,
including about the robustness of the forthcoming parliament and how much
it would keep the regime �on its toes�, as he indicated in his May 27
press conference to domestic and foreign journalists. Once again, he is
always right and truthful, including about the post election killings of
defeated opposition candidates (Reuters, May 26). In that press
conference, he admitted their murder for trying to take election ballot
boxes by force. However, he denied news reports of mass arrests of
opposition supporters in Oromia after the election. That could possibly be
because he wants to avoid further criticisms and pressures building,
especially from outside, even before he has responded to Birtukan�s case
and the hundreds other political prisoners.
I was quite surprised to read in the EU preliminary report of 25 May a
reference to the Association of Families of the Derg as a part of the
Coalition of Ethiopian Civil Societies for Election Observation (CECSEO).
I strongly support the role of local civil society organizations observing
the election, only if they are allowed to be free and independent. For
instance, how free and independent could members of that association of
family members of former government who already live in fear. If not about
that, I was doubtful about the whole idea, as I indicated in my article of
30 March 2010, �TPLF (EPRDF)�HARDLY GOOD MIDWIFE FOR THE FUTURE
DEMOCRATIC ETHIOPIA� ( www.tecolahagos.com).
I used the following words to express that scepticism:
�TPLF strategists as of January 2, 2010 have come
with a new mechanism to ensure their continuity, which would adversely
affect integrity of the election. They have successfully orchestrated
formation of �coalition of civil society organisations�, preparing to
deploy 40,000 election observers throughout the country� We already know
the coalition�s attitude, for instance, regarding the presence during
the election of foreign observers. Read carefully and reflect on what Ato
Kassahun Follo, vice president of the new coalition and president of CETU�Ethiopian
labour unions�said: �We say this task concerns us more than it
does foreign observers. They cannot be better observers than we are.
Whereas we share with them common objectives on this mission, not only
would we do the task of observing the election like them, but better than
they do. We have the skills, the capacity and the responsibility� (Reporter
writer�s translation).
Another African electoral drama d�j� vu
While the TPLF/EPRDF�s electoral victory is not
unanticipated, this time 99.6 percent victory is way over the top,
signifying its organisational control and habitual manipulations.
Unfortunately, this time around, this result came when the opposition,
despite its weaknesses, has sent shock waves into the spines of the ruling
party in Tigrai, Amhara and Oromia. Did the prime minister have any
surprises? Yes, by his admission. He said the opposition did better than
he had anticipated in Tigrai, TPLF�s home base. That tells something!
Nonetheless, irrespective of the size of its victory,
what matters is that this juncture is culmination of the country�s
journey into becoming bona fide single party state, both in form
and content. What the TPLF/EPRDF has done is a to repeat what other
African dictators have practiced in almost all parts of the region for
decades, constantly exposing the region to instability and conflicts.
Mostly in the past, where the military seized power there were those that
outright said there would be no talk of democracy, no elections either so
long as they had the guns. They decaled from the time they seized power
that their form of governance is single party rule. In that sense, they
should be credited for their honesty, although they reduced countries
after countries to sterility in terms of human development and the taste
and sense of citizenship and dignity that have hardly been restored.
Others cheated their own people in the name of
democracy. The international community cooperated with the dictators, both
old Cold War warriors (most of them ex-colonial masters) and the East
shoring up those regimes. For a long time, they have allowed these cruel
people to get away with mass murders and sham elections that pushed Africa
into downward spiral politically, economically and socially. A repeat of
this across the continent has simply discredited elections in the eyes of
ordinary Africans that have to pay for the extravaganza to crown dictators
with their sweats and blood. What strength do ordinary people have to
overcome such a united front, unless they now see the evil of this and
both sides change the terms of their relationship?
The fourth round national election has cost Ethiopian
tax payers Birr 189 million ($ 14.1 million), the incumbents use of
government resources, human and material, not accounted for. Ethiopians
would have been better off with their $14 million spent on something more
meaningful to improve their daily lives than the dictatorship it has
imposed on them for years to come. Remotely, one can assume that the
lesson it has left may be useful. After all, when the lack of sense of
proportions reaches this level (in every sense) indecency, it is called
hubris�arrogant presumption�borne of recklessness blended with
deception and intoxication by power. That is recipe for disaster.
The past few years of economic growth and development
are becoming a poison chalice to Ethiopians. It has been used as license
by the ruling party to entrench itself in power indefinitely, doing
whatever it likes, as it did before. Ato Meles tries to justify longer
stay in power often referring to the example of Sweden under the Social
democratic party and Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party. Does he see
at all that there is no parallel whatsoever between the two and Ethiopia�s
experience under his rule? These countries are in fact known for their
human oriented development premised on respect for the human rights and
democratic rights of their peoples! At no time have these parties during
their time in power were accused of vote rigging, harassment, imprisonment
and torture of their political opponents and gagging the national media.
They are in fact known around the world for their humane policies that
Africa since the 1970 has so much appreciated.
There is no evidence in these past two decades the
TPLF/EPRDF has ever endeavoured to learn from their useful experiences in
governance. It is lost on it that their secret is winning the hearts and
minds of their citizens, with advanced growth, more democracy and respect
for human dignity in welfare states, not stealing the benefits of growth
through effort and other outlets. Unfortunately, Ato Meles and his
colleagues are more enthused by length of time these parties stayed in
power, which is why they make them their point of references.
Perhaps better comparison for TPLF/EPRDF is found in
Equatorial Guinea, a country of oil wealth boom and stark poverty.
Equatorial Guinea is chosen here for a number of reasons. For one, it is
Africa�s foremost example of farcical elections, even after 1993 when it
started its transition to multi-party democracy. Secondly, like in
Ethiopia, the opposition is under constant intimidation and in and out
from prison. It is reported that around 90 percent of all opposition
politicians live in exile; and 550 anti-Obiang activists have been jailed
and several killed since 1979. In 2006, it was named one of the top five
most-censored countries by the Committee to Protect Journalists. Repeated
requests from the United Nations to hold talks with officials and visit
prisons have been refused, which made the country a topic of on-going
reviews.
Today, the ruling party (PDGE) controls 99 of the 100
seats in its parliament. Secondly, the opposition is severely hampered by
the lack of a free press and political freedom to campaign. In addition,
Ethiopia�s election trends bear strong similarity with Equatorial Guinea
as shown in the table below.
Ethiopia |
1995 |
2000 |
2005** |
2010*** |
Seats |
% |
Seats |
% |
Seats |
% |
Seats |
% |
EPRDF* |
483 |
88.3 |
481 |
87.9 |
327 |
59.8 |
? |
99.6 |
*A total of 547 parliamentary seats **Disputed
election ***Preliminary result
Equatorial Guinea |
1993a |
1999 |
2004 |
2008 |
2009 Presidential |
Seats** |
% |
Seats |
% |
Seats/a |
% |
Seats/b |
% |
Mbasongo |
Others*** |
PDGE |
68 |
85 |
75 |
93.4 |
98 |
98 |
89 |
89 |
95.36 |
4.06 |
** 98 seats a/ Transition to democracy
b/Increased to 100 seats * blank and wasted allots 0.43% ***Four
candidates
Sources africanelections.tripod.com; www.electionguide.org
Although Equatorial Guinea is often accused lots of human rights
violations, because of its newly found oil wealth it has been treated with
kids glove by some quarters whose voice so much matters to the betterment
of and evolution of better system of governance at home and abroad. This
has not stopped the United Nations from warning in 2008 those having
dealings with that country saying: �to
ensure that, in their development cooperation and business practices, they
are not complicit in violations of human rights by state authorities� (www.un.org/news).
Transparency International says Equatorial Guinea is the 12th most
corrupt country in the world. President Obiang was accused of
corruption stashing money in foreign banks, of allowing his party members
and supports to use public money, as if it were their own for their
luxurious life style, luxury homes and cars at home and abroad, while most
Equatorial Guineans struggle to feed their families. According
to the World Bank, oil revenue has not translated into human development,
and this is reflected in poor development indicators. The irony is that
President Obiang tells Equatorial Guineans he has laboured hard to
transform their life conditions. In opening the country�s second
national economic conference in 2007, he reported:
�Our major concern is welfare of the entire
population Equatorial Guinea, including villages far from urban and
industrial centers, for them funds from various resources will be destined
for them in a transparent manner, to improve the quality of life for all
so that they may access valuable social services. The exercise of this
activity during the last ten years has been positive and is being used by
the population: education, health, housing, electricity, potable water,
etc�, transportation, communications...�
Equatorial Guinea�s relations with the United States
were complicated. They were turned off from1993-2001 with the US embassy
closed. They were revived in 2001 in the aftermath of the September 2001
terrorist attacks on American soil. Things started to turn around after
the changes of policy in response to that situation. In 2002, speaking at
the Institute for Advanced
Strategic and Political Studies (IASPS) forum,
Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Walter H. Kansteiner said,
"African oil is of national strategic interest to us, and it will
increase and become more important as we move forward. It will be people
like you who are going to develop that resource, bring that oil home, and
try to develop the African countries as you do it.�
When President Obiang made a lengthy state visit from March to April
2006 to get the US embassy reopened, it was reported he was warmly by
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who called him a "good
friend," taken from the president�s remarks by Wikipedia sources.
It is also reported that the visit was organized for him by the PR company
Cassidy
& Associates,
which since 2004 has been in service of the dictator's government with a
monthly payment of $120,000. The only problem is that US congress
especially the Senate Foreign Relations Committee could not get him off
the hook, referring to the extent of his corruption and the strong case
the United Nations has against him for the torture of his political
opponents.
Ethiopians are at the crossroads today. They know that their politics
in the right direction. Fear, hunger and insecurity accompany a human
being like a person�s own shadow. All that Ethiopia�s friends can do
is use all their influences to make the leadership understand that no
democracy can thrive in closed space. Nor could Ethiopia maintain its
budding relations with the West, and still come with pan in hand to seek
aid. For instance, Europe has its pledges with ACP countries regarding
human rights. Where have those instruments gone? Beyond their commercial
and strategic interests, Ethiopia�s partners need to see there is an
aspect of their relations with the Ethiopian people towards which they
have become neglectful.
Looking to the outside only cannot provide the silver bullet to all our
problems. The opposition also needs to stop and think now�not when
election is around the corner. I should hope that this election has left a
lasting lesson to all sides. An opposition continuing in its present
course would surely repulse the good citizens of our country.
|
|