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CONSISTENCY WITH THE ENTIRE PROCESSES AFFIRMS NOTHING

UNUSAL IN ETHIOPIA�S MAY 23RD ELECTORAL OUTCOME!

By Genet Mersha, 30 May 2010


 

The election ended a week ago Sunday. Many citizens are still in shock by the outcome, as if there had not been  anticipation, sound analysis that had almost predicted this outcome. Moreover, it was clear that the divided opposition was not ready to capture power, wrapped up as it has been in its internal struggles and hounding by the regime. However, in spite of that it was expected that it would increase its seats in parliament. That is why it is difficult to make any sense out of 99.6 percent electoral victory for the ruling party.

Knowing that, the TPLF/EPRDF has ratcheted an all round propaganda offensive. His eyes on the fifth round national election five years from now, mark my word, this is only the beginning of Ato Meles�s bolder moves. Even those TPLF old guards that are to be removed from day to day public sight after this election would continue in some formto work toward that objective�with handsome �pensions�, other state benefits and bundles form EFFORT�s deep pockets. They may not continue in their present position; but they would surely be placed from where they would sharpen the regime�s knuckle.

Consequently, May 23rd has vindicated governments, experts, news sources and civic organisations that in the past few years have expressed their concerns about the behaviour of the regime. They foresaw that the laws and regulations Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has put in place would stifle genuine competition, one sign of which is the elimination of the opposition from parliament and the continuing harassment.

As usual, Ato Meles has explanations for everything, including about the robustness of the forthcoming parliament and how much it would keep the regime �on its toes�, as he indicated in his May 27 press conference to domestic and foreign journalists. Once again, he is always right and truthful, including about the post election killings of defeated opposition candidates (Reuters, May 26). In that press conference, he admitted their murder for trying to take election ballot boxes by force. However, he denied news reports of mass arrests of opposition supporters in Oromia after the election. That could possibly be because he wants to avoid further criticisms and pressures building, especially from outside, even before he has responded to Birtukan�s case and the hundreds other political prisoners.

I was quite surprised to read in the EU preliminary report of 25 May a reference to the Association of Families of the Derg as a part of the Coalition of Ethiopian Civil Societies for Election Observation (CECSEO). I strongly support the role of local civil society organizations observing the election, only if they are allowed to be free and independent. For instance, how free and independent could members of that association of family members of former government who already live in fear. If not about that, I was doubtful about the whole idea, as I indicated in my article of 30 March 2010, �TPLF (EPRDF)�HARDLY GOOD MIDWIFE FOR THE FUTURE DEMOCRATIC ETHIOPIA� (www.tecolahagos.com). I used the following words to express that scepticism:

�TPLF strategists as of January 2, 2010 have come with a new mechanism to ensure their continuity, which would adversely affect integrity of the election. They have successfully orchestrated formation of �coalition of civil society organisations�, preparing to deploy 40,000 election observers throughout the country� We already know the coalition�s attitude, for instance, regarding the presence during the election of foreign observers. Read carefully and reflect on what Ato Kassahun Follo, vice president of the new coalition and president of CETU�Ethiopian labour unions�said: �We say this task concerns us more than it does foreign observers. They cannot be better observers than we are. Whereas we share with them common objectives on this mission, not only would we do the task of observing the election like them, but better than they do. We have the skills, the capacity and the responsibility� (Reporter writer�s translation).

 

Another African electoral drama d�j� vu

 

While the TPLF/EPRDF�s electoral victory is not unanticipated, this time 99.6 percent victory is way over the top, signifying its organisational control and habitual manipulations. Unfortunately, this time around, this result came when the opposition, despite its weaknesses, has sent shock waves into the spines of the ruling party in Tigrai, Amhara and Oromia. Did the prime minister have any surprises? Yes, by his admission. He said the opposition did better than he had anticipated in Tigrai, TPLF�s home base. That tells something!

 

Nonetheless, irrespective of the size of its victory, what matters is that this juncture is culmination of the country�s journey into becoming bona fide single party state, both in form and content. What the TPLF/EPRDF has done is a to repeat what other African dictators have practiced in almost all parts of the region for decades, constantly exposing the region to instability and conflicts. Mostly in the past, where the military seized power there were those that outright said there would be no talk of democracy, no elections either so long as they had the guns. They decaled from the time they seized power that their form of governance is single party rule. In that sense, they should be credited for their honesty, although they reduced countries after countries to sterility in terms of human development and the taste and sense of citizenship and dignity that have hardly been restored.

Others cheated their own people in the name of democracy. The international community cooperated with the dictators, both old Cold War warriors (most of them ex-colonial masters) and the East shoring up those regimes. For a long time, they have allowed these cruel people to get away with mass murders and sham elections that pushed Africa into downward spiral politically, economically and socially. A repeat of this across the continent has simply discredited elections in the eyes of ordinary Africans that have to pay for the extravaganza to crown dictators with their sweats and blood. What strength do ordinary people have to overcome such a united front, unless they now see the evil of this and both sides change the terms of their relationship?

The fourth round national election has cost Ethiopian tax payers Birr 189 million ($ 14.1 million), the incumbents use of government resources, human and material, not accounted for. Ethiopians would have been better off with their $14 million spent on something more meaningful to improve their daily lives than the dictatorship it has imposed on them for years to come. Remotely, one can assume that the lesson it has left may be useful. After all, when the lack of sense of proportions reaches this level (in every sense) indecency, it is called hubris�arrogant presumption�borne of recklessness blended with deception and intoxication by power. That is recipe for disaster.

The past few years of economic growth and development are becoming a poison chalice to Ethiopians. It has been used as license by the ruling party to entrench itself in power indefinitely, doing whatever it likes, as it did before. Ato Meles tries to justify longer stay in power often referring to the example of Sweden under the Social democratic party and Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party. Does he see at all that there is no parallel whatsoever between the two and Ethiopia�s experience under his rule? These countries are in fact known for their human oriented development premised on respect for the human rights and democratic rights of their peoples! At no time have these parties during their time in power were accused of vote rigging, harassment, imprisonment and torture of their political opponents and gagging the national media. They are in fact known around the world for their humane policies that Africa since the 1970 has so much appreciated.

There is no evidence in these past two decades the TPLF/EPRDF has ever endeavoured to learn from their useful experiences in governance. It is lost on it that their secret is winning the hearts and minds of their citizens, with advanced growth, more democracy and respect for human dignity in welfare states, not stealing the benefits of growth through effort and other outlets. Unfortunately, Ato Meles and his colleagues are more enthused by length of time these parties stayed in power, which is why they make them their point of references.

Perhaps better comparison for TPLF/EPRDF is found in Equatorial Guinea, a country of oil wealth boom and stark poverty. Equatorial Guinea is chosen here for a number of reasons. For one, it is Africa�s foremost example of farcical elections, even after 1993 when it started its transition to multi-party democracy. Secondly, like in Ethiopia, the opposition is under constant intimidation and in and out from prison. It is reported that around 90 percent of all opposition politicians live in exile; and 550 anti-Obiang activists have been jailed and several killed since 1979. In 2006, it was named one of the top five most-censored countries by the Committee to Protect Journalists. Repeated requests from the United Nations to hold talks with officials and visit prisons have been refused, which made the country a topic of on-going reviews.

 

Today, the ruling party (PDGE) controls 99 of the 100 seats in its parliament. Secondly, the opposition is severely hampered by the lack of a free press and political freedom to campaign. In addition, Ethiopia�s election trends bear strong similarity with Equatorial Guinea as shown in the table below.

 

 

 

Ethiopia

1995

2000

2005**

2010***

Seats

%

Seats

%

Seats

%

Seats

%

EPRDF*

483

88.3

481

87.9

327

59.8

?

99.6

*A total of 547 parliamentary seats **Disputed election ***Preliminary result

Equatorial Guinea

1993a

1999

2004

2008

2009 Presidential

Seats**

%

Seats

%

Seats/a

%

Seats/b

%

Mbasongo

Others***

PDGE

68

85

75

93.4

98

98

89

89

95.36

4.06

 

** 98 seats a/ Transition to democracy b/Increased to 100 seats * blank and wasted allots 0.43% ***Four candidates

Sources africanelections.tripod.com; www.electionguide.org

Although Equatorial Guinea is often accused lots of human rights violations, because of its newly found oil wealth it has been treated with kids glove by some quarters whose voice so much matters to the betterment of and evolution of better system of governance at home and abroad. This has not stopped the United Nations from warning in 2008 those having dealings with that country saying:to ensure that, in their development cooperation and business practices, they are not complicit in violations of human rights by state authorities� (www.un.org/news).

Transparency International says Equatorial Guinea is the 12th most corrupt country in the world.  President Obiang was accused of corruption stashing money in foreign banks, of allowing his party members and supports to use public money, as if it were their own for their luxurious life style, luxury homes and cars at home and abroad, while most Equatorial Guineans struggle to feed their families.  According to the World Bank, oil revenue has not translated into human development, and this is reflected in poor development indicators. The irony is that President Obiang tells Equatorial Guineans he has laboured hard to transform their life conditions. In opening the country�s second national economic conference in 2007, he reported:

�Our major concern is welfare of the entire population Equatorial Guinea, including villages far from urban and industrial centers, for them funds from various resources will be destined for them in a transparent manner, to improve the quality of life for all so that they may access valuable social services. The exercise of this activity during the last ten years has been positive and is being used by the population: education, health, housing, electricity, potable water, etc�, transportation, communications...�

Equatorial Guinea�s relations with the United States were complicated. They were turned off from1993-2001 with the US embassy closed. They were revived in 2001 in the aftermath of the September 2001 terrorist attacks on American soil. Things started to turn around after the changes of policy in response to that situation. In 2002, speaking at the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies (IASPS) forum, Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Walter H. Kansteiner said, "African oil is of national strategic interest to us, and it will increase and become more important as we move forward. It will be people like you who are going to develop that resource, bring that oil home, and try to develop the African countries as you do it.�

When President Obiang made a lengthy state visit from March to April 2006 to get the US embassy reopened, it was reported he was warmly by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who called him a "good friend," taken from the president�s remarks by Wikipedia sources. It is also reported that the visit was organized for him by the PR company Cassidy & Associates, which since 2004 has been in service of the dictator's government with a monthly payment of $120,000. The only problem is that US congress especially the Senate Foreign Relations Committee could not get him off the hook, referring to the extent of his corruption and the strong case the United Nations has against him for the torture of his political opponents.

Ethiopians are at the crossroads today. They know that their politics in the right direction. Fear, hunger and insecurity accompany a human being like a person�s own shadow. All that Ethiopia�s friends can do is use all their influences to make the leadership understand that no democracy can thrive in closed space. Nor could Ethiopia maintain its budding relations with the West, and still come with pan in hand to seek aid. For instance, Europe has its pledges with ACP countries regarding human rights. Where have those instruments gone? Beyond their commercial and strategic interests, Ethiopia�s partners need to see there is an aspect of their relations with the Ethiopian people towards which they have become neglectful.

Looking to the outside only cannot provide the silver bullet to all our problems. The opposition also needs to stop and think now�not when election is around the corner. I should hope that this election has left a lasting lesson to all sides. An opposition continuing in its present course would surely repulse the good citizens of our country.