�A Guide for the Perplexed� (On the Future of Ethiopia )  

Tecola W. Hagos
[Reposted October 30, 2009, originally posted May 10, 2002]

I. General - Introduction

The title of my article is not that original. It is taken from the titles of two unrelated works: one by the medieval humanist philosopher Maimonides (AD 1135-1204), and the other by an economist of our own time E.F.Schumacher (1911-77). Maimonides tried to reconcile reason and faith at a time when theological dogmatism (fanaticism) was rampant in the Medieval World, and Schumacher tried to teach us about the humble dignity of simple small scale ventures at a time when grandiose projects financed by the World Bank were creating havoc in the lives of hundreds of millions of people all over the developing world. Thus, you may appreciate my choice of title as illustrative or indicative of the universal as well as the particular struggle of man for wisdom, understanding, self-respect, and fellowship.

 Some young men and women of my generation lured first by the illusive idea of western �democracy,� and still others seduced by the promise of instantaneous wealth and idyllic societies of Marxist thoughts were swallowing and regurgitating without digesting such fantasies. We have witnessed in the last fifty years, numerous people all over the developing world fighting and dying for imported and alien political ideals without regard to existing profound knowledge of �traditional� communities. The new elites of traditional communities were digging and living within wells of conformity of their own constructions, which was most harmful to most of their fellow citizens.

 We too, the �educated� few Ethiopians of the last fifty years, stagnated within narrow wells of conformity, and hardly ever allowed original thinking to seep in, which would have helped us move away from the doldrums of political ideology. Even worse, we desperately tried to imitate our aristocrats and feudal class in our personal behavior. We never truly internalized any of the democratic principles we pontificated, in our own daily lives. We are hypocrites and delusional. Whether we are promoting universal suffrage, or democratic centralism, it seems we were always the center of every political structure we intended to erect for Ethiopia . We seem to have no genuine respect of our fellow Ethiopians who toil from Sun Rise to Sun Set maintaining the continued existence of our nation. Even though most of us are the sons and daughters of such people, we have no stomach for rural life or for work that requires physical exertion.

At the very beginning, let me state very clearly that none of what I have written here would be of any consequence without freedom of speech, expression, and association. The existence of a free press (media) is an absolute necessity for the future of Ethiopia . We need a vigorous, self-starter, and courageous free press. I put much of my faith in a free press because it is going to be the eyes and ears of all Ethiopians. Government controlled press must take a backseat and allow private press and media to lead in the information, debate, and often irreverent questioning of government officials. Especially, during a transition period, the role of our free press and media is of utmost importance. It is the press that is going to do most of the vigilant watching of the activities of both politicians and military commanders; thus, keeping everyone straight. It is also the free press that would inform the public of inefficiency and corruption in our government and the armed forces. A healthy national economic development owes much to a free press to expose all predatory and monopolistic activities of businessmen and women. I have assumed much to be done by a free press and media. Otherwise, my ideas will fold as wishful thinking.

 One additional fact that we need to keep in mind is that we are blessed with incredibly strong social values that predate both Christianity and Islam. Our strong sense of independence, sense of justice, individual accountability, and fairness or equal treatment of individuals in similar circumstances are our bedrock values. Ethiopia is a classic example of a synergy, where the whole is profoundly greater than the parts. Thus, for the sake of our present crisis, I urge people to concentrate on the ideas offered here and not on the genealogy or evolution of my political views.    

 II. The �Kupamanduka� Syndrome

At an international conference held in July of 2000, Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate for Economics (1998), illustrated his concern of a stagnant society that did not adopt itself to new reality, citing from ancient Sanskrit texts a story of �kupamanduka,� a simple story of a well-frog (a frog that dwells all its life in a well), which refused to accept the reality that existed outside of its tiny world. [Amartya Sen, �Why Human Security� presentation at the International Symposium on Human Security, Tokyo , 28 July 2000, 7. The article was in defense of globalization, but relevant to our situation of limited vision.]

 We, Ethiopian �politicians� have all become �well-frogs� who dwell in our respective tiny wells of political organizations. We could neither see beyond the confinement of our own ambitions and over the walls of our ideological wells that we constructed, nor lift our imagination to see beyond the prejudices that blind us. Thus, we are effectively marginalized and neutered from any potent and profound engagement in the life of Ethiopia . Our lives touch the lives of most of our countrymen only tangentially.

 Definitely, we are coming into another crossroads in the turbulent history of our beloved country. Meles Zenawi and his treasonous regime are heading into a catastrophe of their own making and political oblivion. In anticipation of that eventuality, all kinds of political groups and individuals are trying to get the best possible political leverage by placing themselves in the thickest skirmish for popularity. In times of uncertainty, everyone seems to be in his or her best behavior.  We see all forms of maneuvers by all of these groups, some sophisticated, but most repetitious, clumsy, and obvious.   

 I am supportive of anyone forming political team or organization, and actively presenting his or her program to the people of Ethiopia and campaigning to win leadership positions. However, I have come to the conclusion that we have too many �Chiefs� and too few �Indians� at the present time. Not only that but also the fact that every single political organization is hovering to land on some political arrangement, more or less a repeat of the 1991 undemocratic transition of power from one dictatorial political group to another equally undemocratic political group, in disregard of the rights of millions of Ethiopian citizens. History may well repeat itself, and that is the tragedy that we may not have learned much from events of the last ten years. 

 Almost every current Ethiopian political organization is structured based on ideas of long worn-out elitist class structure with no basis or connection to the reality surrounding Ethiopian citizens. Membership in those political organizations is limited to a tiny segment of urbanites (mostly small business people) and semi-feudal professionals. Over all, they represent a fraction of the Ethiopian population. As far as I can surmise, such organizations are insignificant and are not by any stretch of the imagination representatives of the people of Ethiopia . In fact, it is sheer arrogance and narcism for such teams ever to dream of acquiring state power through such sleek structures.

  Thus, I venture out with suggestions for our future participation in the political and economic life of our country. Our history shows without exception that we are not lacking of ambitious individuals who would risk their lives and their future in order to acquire political power. Of course, since our nation is a mosaic of different cultures, the intensity of the desire of individuals for power is as diverse as the communities that nourished such political ambitions. My very general observation is that some Ethiopians especially highlanders tend to think in hierarchically structured militaristic political organizations, whereas by contrast Ethiopian lowlanders tend to think more in horizontal power division with some hierarchical tendencies. Both groups are far from safeguarding and respecting individual rights either political or human. Both have strength in some aspects, and weakness in others. The secret here is to learn from both experiences, and build on the strength of both.

 It is very easy to put forth grandiose political and economic programs at a time one is seeking support from the Ethiopian people. The problem starts after the acquisition of political power and command of the military or armed men (women) of Ethiopia . Thus, in order to avoid past mistakes of allowing insignificant conspiratorial groups from taking state power and use the armed men of Ethiopia to impose on the people of Ethiopia new dictators, the armed men of Ethiopia will not be under the command of any politician or political group.

 Every politician who is seeking state power has to work at the grassroots level to promote the political and economic program of his or her organization. This time around, no political group is going to take advantage of the transition situation as it happened in 1975-78, and 1991 where groups with few constituents were treated as if they were legitimate representatives of the people of Ethiopia . During the coming transition period, the most important function of the transitional government is to make sure that the people of Ethiopia fully participate in their political future. There after, when elections are held, it is up to the people of Ethiopia to elect their representatives and their leaders. Therefore, there should not be a conference like the one in 1991 where few political organizations (some with less than fifty members) decide which political groups are going to lead the country while the people of Ethiopia watch in silence as their fate is determined by a handful of strangers!

 As indicated above, the best possible procedure after Meles and associates are driven out of office is to have a short transition period of two years. No political organization will be allowed to participate in the transition government, but neutral and honorable Ethiopians, who were not officials of the governments of Meles Zenawi or Mengistu Hailemariam, from around the country will form a transition government for the sole purpose of preparing the country for universal election to be held in two years time, and to draft a constitution. My suggestion is to have village elders, businessmen, schoolteachers, retired labor leaders, and retired officials from Haile Selassie period to run the transitional government. Religious leaders will contribute to the transition period through their spiritual guidance and prayer. The detail of the process on organizing or holding elections to form a regular government may not be that easy at this point to write about. However, we must have a clear understanding of the meaning of a transitional government.

 The transition period is strictly a period for the normalization of the situation, the administration of the civil service, the collection of taxes, the payment of international debts, the drafting of a new constitution, and the organization of election districts. It is not a period where political organizations take over the government by forming a coalition, and then fight it out with each other in order to gain sole power, as was the case during the last ten years. The individuals who form the transition government will not be allowed to run for any elected office, or be appointed for ministerial or other governmental senior offices once the transition period is over and a new government is formed.

 Over the centuries our men of arms have been manipulated, abused, and used as instruments of oppression, violence, and murder of the civilian Ethiopian population. To take as an example of our own time, starting from Emperor Haile Selassie I all the way down to Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian men of arms have been used by such unscrupulous men to commit horrendous acts of violence and brutality whereby they had murdered tens of thousands of Ethiopians. This time, Ethiopia �s men in arms are going to serve the people of Ethiopia by insuring that no sleek process is going to put them one more time in the hands of politicians.

 The question of what must be done right now is the most important enquiry for the future of our country. Before we get to the point of the establishment of a transitional government, we must have a clear idea how the present government is going to be replaced by a transitional government. Meles and associates are not going to pack their things and leave one day. Why should they? Thus, either it is going to happen through massive civil disobedience where there is a complete breakdown of civil government, or the current government is pushed out of office by force. However, the types of protests and demonstrations we have had so far (simple and limited nonviolent protests and demonstrations) will not achieve any change of government.

 However, if there is massive civil disobedience due to the unbearable brutality of Meles, the likelihood of a military takeover and the establishment of a government by some of the people who are part of the current Ethiopian government in association with some political organizations is a real possibility. Such eventualities will be very tragic setbacks for the unity and territorial integrity of Ethiopia . The coming of another dictatorial government formed by recycled officials and opportunist political organizations, or the establishment of a transitional government by political invitees on their own will result in the breakup of Ethiopia . Thus, I believe there is an absolute need for an armed struggle. The armed struggle must be under one command and should have as one of its goals to win the support and ultimately the incorporation of the Ethiopian Army as part of the new Ethiopian liberated military--a new armed force that will not be under the direct command of the future transitional government or the regular government for a certain period of time.

 The armed struggle would have three distinct goals: (1) to drive out the current government of Meles Zenawi, (2) to delaminate the Ethiopian army from the clutches of politicians in order to allow the army to defend and preserve the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ethiopia, and (3) to protect the individual human and political rights of every Ethiopian without regard to ethnicity, social status, age, language, gender, or religion.

 III. Delaminating Military Power from Political Power

As pointed out above the Ethiopian armed men and women were used and abused by every political leader that ever lead Ethiopia . With such dismal records, one would expect some new ideas from our future leaders and their political organizations. Unfortunately, the record of the last thirty years is very clear that no creative solution was offered by any group. Instead, we had ideology without content, ambition without discipline, and rampant corruption.

 It is simply a matter of studying the political and economic programs, and observing the activities of Ethiopian political organizations and their support groups, to see that in the last thirty years nothing creative has been presented by any group. The forms of political programs (structures) that are offered from leftist organizations to anachronistic supporters of the aristocracy simply do not see the people of Ethiopia as an end in themselves or as the legitimate source of political power. The ambition of every leader political organization I know of is to get the army under its command and thereafter impose by force its will (political and economic programs) and its leadership on the people of Ethiopia . As recent as two weeks ago at a demonstration, I listened to speech after speech by leaders of political organizations who are �threatening� us openly that they are going to implement their political programs even at the time of transition! It is both a disappointment and alarming for me to hear the voices of such raw ambition.

Three years ago, in desperation, I even suggested the concept of lottocracy, whereby political power would be transferred from one individual to another by a general national lottery. [See Tecola W. Hagos, Demystifying Political Thought, Power, and Economic Development: A Harvard Lecture, Washington DC : Khepera Publishers, 1999, 94-95.] The idea was offered as a possible solution to Ethiopia �s chronic problem of violent dictatorial rulers. It was a simple scheme aimed to discourage the formation of cliquish, ethnic, or religious stratification. Some of my critics said that I was trivializing an extremely serious problem by suggesting a process that is no different from buying a lottery ticket from a grocery store in order to win a prize. That was precisely my point. We seem to think of political power as a prize for our own personal satisfaction and not for public service. Maybe my cynicism was wasted on such people.

If we take away from our politicians the power to command the armed men of Ethiopia , we will be able to control the type of future damage the Ethiopian people might suffer, and save them from the type of harm people had suffered under past dictatorial leaders. There is no doubt in my mind as to the direct connection between the acquisition of political power and subsequent abuse and violation of the human and political rights of Ethiopian citizens by leaders who were able to command the military to do their murderous work. This is not very difficult to understand.  

Because of the serious threat to the national integrity and sovereignty of Ethiopia , exceptional steps must be adopted. The most important aspect of my suggestion is the idea of taking away from our politicians all military command for a limited period of time. The military will have its own command structure and will carry out only its defense duties without the interference, manipulation, or influence of any particular political organization. This will insure that our armed men will have undivided devotion to the preservation and integrity of our beloved nation. On the Other hand the Ethiopian Army is forbidden from any political activities in support or against any political organization, and will not be engaged in civilian administrative duties.

 The armed men of Ethiopia must carry out the following goals:

1. Defend and preserve the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ethiopia .

2. Restore unity and harmony to all of Ethiopia .

3. Prepare the groundwork for the establishment of political and civic democracy.

4. Empower the people of Ethiopia with full political power, and insure and safeguard democratic and human rights for all Ethiopians.

5. Remove all divisive schemes seeded by Meles Zenawi and the EPRDF.

6. Free all political prisoners, including those imprisoned TPLF leaders and leaders from other political organizations.

7. Bring to justice all senior government officials who participated in the dismemberment of Ethiopia as reflected in The Hague Boundary Commission decision.

 My critics may say that my suggestions are, in fact, a nostalgic reversal to a chauvinistic past that Ethiopians have already discarded. There is also the danger of the Ethiopian military taking over the government of Ethiopia as it did in the 1970s with Mengistu Hailemariam emerging as one of the worst brutal dictator in Ethiopian history. Mechanisms of safety, such as �check and balance� systems, could be installed to minimize the likelihood of another military dictatorship. Here is one area that experienced Ethiopians may help solve the problem of any cyclical dictatorship.

   Trying to preserve the territorial integrity and sovereignty of ones own country is never chauvinistic. In all probability, lack of patriotic feelings about ones own country might have been the main reasons why several countries were easy victims of a handful of colonial powers. Patriotism includes the act of selfless service, service without anticipated reward. It is uplifting to remember the story of the Roman General Lucius Quintius Cincinnatus who was recalled from where he was ploughing his farm to be entrusted with the highest office of �Dictatore� and save Rome from impending doom in 458 B.C. And after defeating the enemies of Rome , Cincinnatus promptly gave up his power to go back to his farming.

It is not beyond our reach to have such noble spirited Ethiopians who would step up to defend Ethiopia and not just lust for power. In fact, if we look back into our history, we find two of our greatest generals, Alula aba Nega and Balcha aba Nefso, who voluntarily came out of their retirement in their advanced age (close to eighty years) and in poor health, to fight one more time for their beloved country even though they were badly treated and exiled by ungrateful Emperors.

 IV. Building a Wall between Politicians and Armed Men (Women)

A. Ethiopian Men of Arms:

The monumental task of keeping the Ethiopian army away from the command of politicians must be carried out through the guidance and leadership of individuals whose only purpose is the defense of Ethiopia, the preservation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ethiopia, and the safeguarding of individual human rights of every Ethiopian irrespective of ethnic origins, nationality, status, religion, or gender. This is meant to protect the armed men of Ethiopia from the abuses and inequities of Ethiopian politicians. It is advisable to establish a single central command with civilian members as leaders.

 In order to insure that no political organization or individual politicians exert any influence on the military, there would be an absolute ban on evolvement of the armed men of Ethiopia in political rallies or elections for the duration of the period of the struggle. This is a voluntary act by the members of the armed forces and not an imposition to deny the democratic and civil rights of any member of the forces. During conscription and voluntary enlistment every individual recruit is given a chance to remove himself if he does not accept that condition of military service.

 The commanders of the armed forces will not be allowed to run for elected offices, nor for political appointments as president, prime minister, ministers or vice ministers, ambassadors, directors, general managers of public enterprises, nor as religious leaders as Abuns or Imams et cetera even after the transition period has ended and a regular government is elected into office (at least for two consecutive regular national elections). They will not participate in the election of government officials. They could be allowed into general and normal citizenship rights of election only after the second regular election of the government of Ethiopia had been carried out.

 Every member of the Ethiopian armed forces would observe strict code of conduct and would be subjected to strict discipline. Ideally, all members of the armed forces are volunteers. None is forced against his or her will to join the Ethiopian army. Moreover, in order to ensure and maintain the wall erected between the Ethiopian armed forces and Ethiopian politicians and civilian government officials, no member of the Ethiopian armed forces without prior approval of the council of Commanders may discuss or negotiate any formal agreement, or understanding with any political party or leader of such political party during the period of the transitional government and during the first two elections of the Ethiopian government.

The advantages of building a wall between our current political leaders (including all aspiring politicians) and the military will help us build Ethiopia �s true professional military. The advantages of such structure are very much dependent on the type of people who must sacrifice every personal ambition of political appointment, wealth, limelight, and public adulation and serve away from political skirmishes in obscurity. Of course, those political leaders who believe they can use their talent better as ministers, ambassadors, and in other political appointments are free to choose that part of public service with the full knowledge that they will have nothing to do with the armed men of Ethiopia once they decide where to serve.  

B. Political Groups and Politicians, Labor (trade) Unions and Professional Associations:

In my books, essays and articles, I may have harshly criticized interest groups such as associations, the mehale sefaries et cetera; and political organizations such as the EPLF, EPRP, Meison, Olf, TPLF et cetera not because I have personal hatred of individual members of such groups but because they have inherently defective political and economic programs or views. And at least EPLF and TPLF have caused us tremendous harm. Even though I listed them all in one statement, some of these groups have been far more destructive and anti-Ethiopia than others. In fact, groups like the mehale sefaris are very patriotic but suffer from over zealous opportunism and insatiable appetite for power. Having said that, I suggest that even detestable political organizations like some I mentioned here have legitimate rights to present their programs.

 There should be absolutely no precondition or special requirement for any Ethiopian to express his political views in speech or in writing, in association with other Ethiopians to form political organizations, or present an individual as a candidate for any elected office. There are very limited exceptions to this general understanding of unfettered freedom of expression and association. In the interest of maintaining our unity and social harmony, everyone is admonished and discouraged from ethnic based political organizations, attacks on personal identity of individuals, personal libelous statements, and from forming and participating in religious dogmatic fanaticism as a political base.

 In the new Ethiopian transition period, no politician or political group will be allowed to have a private army. In fact, the only army in Ethiopia is going to be the Ethiopian Army. Since every Ethiopian�s right to form political or professional organizations is ensured, there is no need for private armies or liberation fronts. Politicians ought to concentrate developing their political and economic programs, and teaching and explaining to the general public their goals and hopes for Ethiopia .

There seems to be confusion between the role of professional organizations and political parties. Strictly speaking, I may have to assert that associations should not elect political leaders in the name of the members of their associations, and should not send representatives to be part of a government. The right role for associations is to influence their members to support political parties and political leaders, and make their own deals with those they support. There are several reasons why it is not a good idea to have associations be involved directly as political actors. One of the main reasons is to avoid syndicalism or syndicalist structure that could disrupt the economy of the country. In fact, it is advisable to organize a labor party so that the interest of members of associations, trade unions, or labor unions may be represented in the government of Ethiopia .

 V. Reversing The Hague Boundary Decision

The second most important mission of the armed men of Ethiopia is to reverse the illegal decision of The Hague Boundary Commission entered 13 April 2002. In order to carry out that mission quickly and effectively, the military will/should be entrusted with the duty to arrest and bring to trial all the players in Ethiopia - Eritrea boundary decision. The Hague Boundary case is the most important assignment to the military second only to the duty to preserve the integrity and sovereignty of Ethiopia . The removal of Meles Zenawi and associates from political power, and trying them for treason is the key to the nullification of The Hague Boundary Commission�s decision.

 It is absolutely necessary to have the activities of Meles and associates declared by an Ethiopian court to have been treasonous thereby preempting the �act of state� defense that would have been the backbone of any claim to enforce the decision of the Commission by the Eritrean government, the United Nations, or any other government claiming derivative right. Therefore, not only it is absolutely necessary that Meles and his associates be forced out of office but also they must be arrested or prevented from living the country. The arrest of Meles and associates will also prevent foreign governments, who benefited from The Hague decision, from harming or murdering them in an effort to silence those treasonous officials from recanting or testifying about their role in the dismemberment of Ethiopia . In the unlikely situation that Meles and associates escape arrest and run out of the country they should be hunted down as common criminals or tried in an absentia or both.

 It is only a disciplined military that can effectively carry out such extremely serious missions. We have seen in the last ten years how the government of Meles Zenawi used and abused the judicial process to promote its political life by selectively bringing to court former officials of the defunct government of Mengistu Hailemariam. We do not want to repeat such process and play with our public when the very existence of Ethiopia as a nation is at stake. Time, ought to be of profound concern to us all.

  V. New Faces

What I believe Ethiopians are starving for most is to see a new face of political leadership. They have had their fill of stern brutal faces of dictators as far as living memory can take us. The face of compassion, and some humor is absolutely necessary at this juncture of our history. I personally want to see a smiling face, the face of a leader that is laughing at his own expense. We spend too much time observing ritualistic mannerisms that we seem to have forgotten the primary purpose of life in general. Simply put, as far as I can tell, the purpose of life is enlightened living. Why do we have to burden ourselves with psychological deadweight when we are already overburdened with massive social, political, and economic difficulties?

 Political involvement is fine, but it is not the only thing in our lives. People need have private lives, with adequate time to appreciate �small mercies� of simple human pleasures and happiness. I am skeptical of any leader that has no private life, or time to appreciate the simple pleasures of life, and have healthy human interactions with social friends and acquaintances. For example, I do not believe that a pious hermit could ever be a great leader, who would inspire us to be responsive, sensitive, and responsible citizens. One has to be in the world, and not by its side or above it, in order to be useful to others.

 Conclusion

There is really no conclusion to this article. It is open ended. However, I may reemphasize certain points on how we ought to relate to different ideologies. I dare say that there is nothing intrinsic in any ideology, what matters is what we bring to it. On the level of idea, the reality of ideologies is not similar to a physical reality of social life. We use ideas to help us solve problems of survival. And human survival is as much communal as it is also individual. We must seek the best idea that might help us solve our social, political, and economic problems. It (idea) must be practical, long lasting, and least harmful to the individual as well as for the community.

 It is because of my search for such solutions and new ideas that I allowed myself the arrogance to suggest untested governmental systems to my fellow Ethiopians. There are hidden and obvious risks in any experimental and new ideas. And my suggestions are not exceptions to that general anomaly. I believe I have presented here a kernel of truth and solutions that may grow into full-fledged panacea to our cyclical problems. One must love and respect the people of Ethiopia , I mean every Ethiopian, warts and all, if one wants to implement my ideas. Less than such unconditional devotion will not work to solve our uniquely difficult problems.

Tecola W. Hagos,

Copyright � 2002, Washington DC , June 2002

NB. What was true in our political and economic circumstances eight years ago when I wrote this article continues to be relevant to our political and economic circumstances to date. Thus, it is particularly relevant to the emerging legitimate political opposition organizations� development, such as Medrek. It is in the best interest of the People of Ethiopia that all political organizations and civic associations present a unified opposition and in solidarity with the Medrek Group against the treasonous Leadership in power and the political organizations that are the individual members of the EPRDF and the EPRDF itself.