| 
       
      
      ETHIOPIA
      
      �S
      VITAL INTEREST: NATIONAL SECURITY VS. POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY
      
       
      By
      Tecola W. Hagos 
       
      PART
      ONE
      
       
      I.
      The Current Diaspora Politics vs. Visions of New Democracies 
      
       
      The
      more I read articles and chat-postings in the Internet posted by a number
      of Ethiopians in the Diaspora, the more I realize how far Ethiopians
      tragically are fractured in their views on the Somali crises. The type of
      diversity of ideas on the Somali crises entertained by Ethiopians in the
      Diaspora is a symptom of a far more serious and long festering deeply felt
      political and cultural wound than just being limited to the Somali crises.
      In a way, my article is a response to such common concern not just about
      the current Ethiopia/Somalia crises. My real concern, in short, is the
      political future of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      as a nation/state. I have entertained alternative views on our future
      social, political, and economic life. Hopefully, this article, just as
      other articles posted in different websites have done, will advance the
      discourse on several fronts on the general political situation in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      and not just limited to the Somali crises. Before I address such issues,
      however, I would like to state some general observations on the state of
      affairs about �Diaspora politics.� 
      
       
       
      [I
      have an article on a much needed discussion on the divisive and
      destructive role being played out by our Church Fathers, in Part Two of
      this article to be posted soon.] 
      
       
       
      Diaspora
      politics has evolved into tragic emotive behavior of very many Ethiopians
      who express ethnocentric views that is unbelievably infantile, which is
      often paraded as a criticism of individuals who happen to have a different
      view of Ethiopian history than the �official� one, especially dealing
      with past unsavory relationship of Ethiopian leaders with Italy. Whenever
      such narrow ethnic �champions� of the legacy of a particular
      linguistic culture write about Ethiopian history based on such limited
      identification, they only succeed in perpetuating ethnicity as a political
      tool of division. It is a fact that one may feel some degree of triumph
      trashing an adversary if not with deeds, at least with corrosive words.
      Such tragic individuals often engaged in such divisive diatribe are
      individuals who claim to speak for all Ethiopians even if their
      referential region is limited mostly to Addis Ababa or nearby regions and
      the pedigree of a couple of Emperors in a setting where we can rightfully
      boast of a mosaic of culture and hundreds of kings, emperors, or leaders
      with diverse background. 
      
       
       
      I
      used the word �tragic� repeatedly in describing the different and
      divisive voices of very many Ethiopians because I consider the process as
      self mutilation. My objection to such process of infliction of suffering
      has to do also with the fact that a number of Ethiopians are willing to
      �throw out the baby with the bath water,� metaphorically speaking, in
      their pursuit of narrow political goals. This narrow vengeful outlook is a
      result of alienation and long-running suffering. This statement is more of
      a description than an accusation, and is intended to help build common
      ground where political participation may in deed be universal. I realize
      that my suggestion may be nothing more than some grandiose vision or na�ve
      wishful thinking. Ethiopian society is increasingly becoming the least
      nurturing society I know of in the world. Thus, it comes as no surprise to
      me if some members of the Ethiopian community feel as outsiders and
      thereby aspire for their own autonomy. 
      
       
       
      From
      my perspective, it seems to me that the opposition group as exemplified in
      Kinijit is heading in the wrong direction, for it is stratified
      overwhelmingly with one kind of Ethiopians in the Diaspora of a group
      mostly from 
      
      Addis Ababa
      
      and vicinity. This form of political initiation is not helpful for
      national political development. It simply reinforces what is wrong in all
      post-modern political movements all over the world�the fragmentation of
      viable states into tiny enclaves of ethnic based primitive �tribal�
      communities. A lesson to remember is how the ideas of Andre Gundar Frank
      of trusting a military to bring about �socialist� change in a feudal
      society adopted by Meison completely backfired and ended up in the
      establishment of the most violent military regime in Ethiopian History.
      Despite the fact of great opportunities for democratic culture by osmosis,
      what is happening in the leadership of Diaspora politics is narrow
      ethnicism or at best some kind of a convoluted class structure. Ethiopians
      in the Diaspora are now fully engaged in such trend of ethnic politics. I
      do not see democratic growth, universal participation, and solidarity of
      Ethiopians in the Diaspora. In fact, the reverse is happening of increased
      stratification and further political atomization.    
      
       
       
      If
      a person goes around checking and learning about the leaders of
      �Kinijit� in the Diaspora, such person will be amazed how narrow the
      range of associations, friends, family extensions, church memberships et
      cetera seem to be of such leaders. By contrast in the 1980s the TPLF,
      which started out its political life as the quintessential narrow ethnic
      organization, has formed close relationships with numerous liberation
      fronts from the rest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . The relationship formed by the TPLF seems to have been based on
      ideological commonality with leaders of other political organizations on
      socialist principles in contradistinction to all �feudalistic�
      organizational structures. Some of the present high officials in the
      Ethiopian Government, such as the Deputy Prime Ministers, Ministers,
      Ambassadors et cetera are individuals who were members of that blanket
      organization as representatives from different linguistic groups from
      Somalia/Harar area, Gurage/Wolieta region, Oromia et cetera. What I
      witnessed in 1991 was a horizontal relationship between such leaders from
      different political organizations that was egalitarian in appearance
      despite the fact that the core political power was welded by the TPLF
      leaders; I see a reversion in a direction that is not what you might think
      is the case. 
      
       
       
      I
      challenge anyone to show me how diversified the current Diaspora
      Opposition leadership is. What I am observing is the aggregation of
      �birds of the same feather� closely bunched and allowing no space to
      the larger community of Ethiopians from outside of Addis Ababa and
      vicinity, and not reflective of the diversity of religion and ethnic
      background of Ethiopians. This is a very serious setback that must be
      reversed if one wants to avoid horrendous bloodshed in the future. Thus,
      Kinijit or any other organization in order to succeed in its political
      goals to replace the current Government of Meles Zenawi must expand and
      diversify the membership of its leadership to include individuals
      reflective of the linguistic or ethnic diversity of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      .  On the other hand, Kinijit
      must clean itself from the stain of former �Red Terror� and �White
      Terror� participants. Above all, it must not allow former Derg officials
      as its leaders. 
      
       
       
      Berhanu
      G. Balcha  the Vice-Chair of
      Network of Ethiopian Scholars (NES) has written an article �A minority rule brings neither democracy nor stability� posted in
      Ethiomedia on 10 February 2007
      that illustrate to me the type of dangerous and degenerative thinking of
      some of Ethiopia�s elites. The reference to Walker Connor by Berhanu G.
      Balcha is similar in essence to that of using Andre Gundar Frank by Meison
      to justify its opportunistic position in joining the Derg in 1975. Why
      should anyone follow the views of these two post-modern thinkers to
      justify the atomization of a viable state structure like that of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      ? The argument of Berhanu G. Balcha is based on the idea of
      self-determination, but that �self-determination� is to be used to
      dethrone a minority group [TPLF] from its political leadership position by
      the aggregation of two ethnic groups [Amharas and Oromos] that would be
      clearly in the majority even though individually such ethnic groups are
      not in the majority. In that particular article by Berhanu G. Balcha, what
      seems to be the message is a call for Oromos and Amharas to gang up
      against Tigreans and subjugate them by driving them out of political
      power. Such ideation is a far cry from advocating for a political process
      with universal principles of democracy, equality, and freedom to all
      members of a society. 
      
       
       
      It
      is unbelievable that the result of �education� and life in the West
      could affect some Ethiopians to become even more narrow ethnicists than
      their parents. As a reminder, lest we commit more damage to the unity of
      the people of 
      Ethiopia
      by making such calls for genocidal war as stated by the learned Vise-Chair
      of an elite association, I would like to recall briefly the history of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      for the last one hundred years. Our present condition of poverty,
      ignorance, social injustice et cetera is a direct result of the inequities
      that we suffered in the hands of �non-Tigrean� Ethiopian leaders such
      as Menilik,  Zewditu, 
      Haile Selassie and Mengistu (in his latter phase). Meles Zenawi and
      his TPLF warriors started out as rebellious group due to the unbearable
      suppression of the people of Ethiopia by Haile Selassie and later by
      Mengistu where millions were starved to death and where political
      suppression was total except for the limited range of people centered from
      Addis Ababa who were able to benefit to some extent from being close to
      the center of power. The entire national wealth of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      was invested in that particular area whereas the rest of the Ethiopian
      people were left in horrible underdevelopment and brutal oppression. Meles
      Zenawi (TPLF) and Mengistu (the Military Derg) were both symptoms
      (victims) of a legacy of unenlightened brutally oppressive Ethiopian
      leadership when they started out their rebellion movements rather than
      being the full cause of the present economic and political condition of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . After acquiring power, they turned out to be no less brutal or
      oppressive than their predecessors.   
      
       
       
      The
      fighting banner of �self�determination� is a dubious motto as used
      by �liberation� movements to this day. It is a fact that almost all
      �liberation� movements that professed such principles of equality and
      freedom in order to gain independence from their colonial masters, failed
      miserably to deliver anything that even remotely resembles any form of
      equality and freedom once �independence� was achieved. Nevertheless,
      in every instance since the 1960s the disaster visited by such process of
      so called �national liberation� is still the legacy that we are
      struggling against in 
      Africa
      and else where in the �underdeveloped� world. 
      Ethiopia
      has no such legacy of colonialism and the concept of self-determination as
      expressed by post-modern thinkers has no real connection to the people of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      and of no political value to us. I know all about the mumbo-jumbo polemic
      of our local liberation movements (OLF, EPLF et cetera) where it is
      asserted that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      having colonized Oromos, Somalis, et cetera is in fact a colonial power in
      itself. Of course, such assertion is �nonsense on stilts� because in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      what is happening is old-fashioned nation building with diverse people as
      its building constitutive parts and not colonialism. If you insist in such
      type of nonsense of assertion that Ethiopia is a colonial power, then you
      may have to produce to me a Bushongo/Congo King of Belgium, a Kikuyu Queen
      of England, a Tuareg/Berber President of
      France et cetera in order to draw a parallel to the condition of the
      political evolution of nation building that is still underway in Ethiopia,
      with your assertion of colonialism. What we need in Ethiopian leadership
      are �giants� with visions of building �an Ethiopian empire� not Lilliputian ethnicists that are aspiring to fly
      hundreds of �flags� from numerous mini-states. 
      
       
       
      We
      have now one serendipitous development that may be the crowning jewel in
      our long search for a political �party� organized by individuals with
      stellar background. I am impressed with the activities of some young
      Ethiopians and their sophisticated universalistic political awareness of a
      different kind from that espoused by ethnicist political movements and
      thinkers like Berhanu G. Balcha. It is tragic for any educated person to
      fail to make a distinction between the leaders of a brutal regime and the
      �ethnic� groups of such leaders, groups who are often victims
      themselves as the general population. The emergence of young Ethiopians
      with selfless acts of great integrity and professional excellence had me
      thinking loudly. None are better situated to start a new �Democratic
      Party of Ethiopia� based on universal participation and away from all
      the divisive ethnic based political setups. The moment I realized the
      surging undercurrent of young Ethiopians, I was thinking of the type of
      leadership role they could play and thereby rekindle the spirit of
      youthful optimism in all Ethiopians. I only hope they do net get seduced
      by the shallow �opposition� politics that has unfolded in front of us
      since May of 2005, especially of the type that is blatantly narrow
      tribalism and genocidal. 
      
       
       
      II. The Issues Concerning the Somali Crises
      
       
      The
      scope of views on the Somali crises rang from total denial of the
      existence of a threat to the national security of 
      Ethiopia
      to Meles Zenawi staging the whole crises trying to divert attention away
      from his oppressive government in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . In addressing such important national and international concern, I am
      setting aside the many infantile bravado of individuals who throw
      political ad hominem darts at me
      hiding behind fake names, instead I will focus my attention on a number of
      well intentioned and well articulated essays written by very capable and
      erudite Ethiopians on the Somali crises, the most recent being that of
      Fekade Shewakena, �Zenawi's
      invasion of Somalia: A serious, long-term policy blunder,� of January
      18, 2006. 
      
       
       
      I
      am not picking on author Fekade; rather I am just providing us a well
      articulated point of reference so that we are not indulging in some
      abstraction or phantom criticism. I assume that the author�s patriotism
      is as genuine as mine if not more, and I assume further that if the author
      harbors any overt or hidden political agenda, it is a legitimate one. If
      such is the case, then why am I critical of such expressed views critical
      of the actions in 
      
      Somalia
      
      by the Government of Meles Zenawi? There are several answers to that
      question and all focused on the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . 
      
       
       
      Let
      me start first by articulating the main issues that critics of the
      Ethiopian Government and Meles Zenawi�s involvement in 
      
      Somalia
      
      often point out. There are five main criticisms offered by the critics of
      the Ethiopian Government involvement and the support it has provided the
      Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFGS) against the Islamic
      Courts Union, and may be summarized as follows: 
      1)
      The Islamic Courts Union is legitimate and was beneficial to the Somali
      people even in its short lived occupation of power in Mogadishu and other
      key towns and vast tract of Somalia, and pause no threat to the national
      security and territorial integrity of Ethiopia; 
      2)
      Meles Zenawi is using the crises to divert the attention of the world from
      focusing on his oppressive government; 
      3)
      Meles Zenawi is a puppet simply playing out the biddings of his
      puppet-master, the 
      United States
      , thereby has compromised the prestige and acceptability of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      in the region and the world; 
      4)
      Because of Meles Zenawi�s Government support of the TFGS and its
      military defeat of the Islamic Courts, Ethiopia as a nation will be
      attacked in the future by the surrounding regional �benign forces�
      i.e., Islamic nations, for Ethiopia will be perceived to be part of the
      �crusade� against Islam spearheaded by the United States; and 
      5)
      Because of Meles Zenawi�s short sighted invasion of 
      Somalia
      , 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is jeopardizing its future international business/trade relationships in
      the region. 
      
       
       
      All
      of the above concerns if perceived in the abstract and devoid of
      historical context may sound legitimate and even convincing. As they say
      �the devil is in the detail,� and a closer scrutiny of the above
      arguments against the Ethiopian Government�s action in 
      Somalia
      revels serious flaws and misrepresentation of current and historical facts
      of the tumultuous relationship of 
      Somalia
      and 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . Long before the current crises, there was a vicious history of
      hostilities between 
      Ethiopia
      and 
      
      Somalia
      
      . We cannot afford either to be selective in our facts or suffer amnesia
      in regard to crucial events in our past or current history just to bolster
      arguments against the government of Meles Zenawi. The undeniable fact is
      that 
      Somalia
      since the time of its independence in 1960 has been very hostile toward 
      Ethiopia
      and had waged three main offensive wars against 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      in 1964, 1977-78, and 1982, and numerous skirmishes along the border to
      this day. 
      
       
       
      To
      think of Somali forces (past and present) and the other forces that are
      aligned with the Arab League, the historic �enemies� of Ethiopia, such
      as that of Djibouti, Egypt, Qatar, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Pakistan,
      and of recent vintage �Eritrea,� as �benign outside forces�
      visa-vie Ethiopia is, simply put, delusional. That pronouncement is what
      �Kinijit� [one faction] used as its pedestal for its foreign policy.
      Such a statement maybe a simple gaffe; however, if seriously offered as a
      foreign policy statement, it is not even within the bounds of extreme form
      of political mistake, for it is just absurd. On the other hand, there are
      several points raised by the critics of Ethiopia�s involvement in the
      Somali crises that I agree with completely, for example, the unreliability
      of the United States Government in backing Ethiopia in the future if
      Ethiopia is faced with hostilities from its Arab neighbors. Another
      important statement that I agree with is the assertion that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      �s internal strength is dependant on the adoption of democratic
      political structure and democratic governance. 
      
       
       
      [Once
      it became clear that the Ethiopian led forces have driven out the
      Jihadists in the current Somali crises, it seems Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi
      Arabia are now pretending to support the Ethiopian military cooperation
      with the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, despite the fact that
      those same Arab nations are the main backers of the Jihadist Islamic
      Courts insurgents to this day.]  
      
       
       
      III. The National Interest and Political
      Ambition
      
       
      I
      am not condemning outright all political ambitions. There are experts in
      human evolution and psychology who claim that the effort to acquire power
      is as much the result of a biological function as much as a social
      processes. Thus, my previous statements critical of political ambitions in
      other articles posted in this website ought to be understood in the
      narrowest possible context. I am only critical of ambitious individuals
      when I believe that the political ambitions of such individuals have no
      content except the �ambition� for power. 
      
       
       
      What
      I find most disappointing of Ethiopian politicians in general is the fact
      that most of them have no record of civic involvement during their youth
      or in their adult lives. In a society where there are limited voluntary
      non-profit organizations, and minimal social clubs such as fraternities,
      alumni associations et cetera it may be unrealistic to expect a high
      degree of civic participation by the population. For the purpose of this
      essay, participation in political organizations does not qualify as
      participation in civic organizations. There is nothing I could point to
      that could tell me what type of administrative or service skills they have
      acquired through their work that would benefit 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      in its political and economic development if they become leaders. As a
      matter of fact, quite a number of aspiring leaders in the Diaspora have
      lived most of their adult lives in foreign countries, that they may as
      well be considered strangers to the people of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . Such defect should have made such individuals humble enough to realize
      the acute limitations of their capacity to lead 
      Ethiopia
      , instead what we have in the Diaspora are such old gizzards trying to
      reinvent themselves as eleventh-hour saviors of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . 
      
       
       
      Social
      participation in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is more of the massive disembodied religious celebration type like Meskel,
      Timket, et cetera, where the individual is lost in the frenzied mass
      of people. The more intimate membership based narrowly structured
      participation in associations, clubs et cetera is almost totally
      non-existent in Ethiopian society. Of course there is the Ider, but that is a very specialized association to bury the dead
      properly. The implication of such absence of intimate social interaction
      is that most Ethiopian social relationships lack depth and individual
      commitment to the general members of society. The individual in such
      society is highly vulnerable and easily victimized by government forces.
      The individual in such society is highly vulnerable and easily victimized
      by government forces. It is a breeding ground of spies and government
      informers thereby severely damaging social cohesion. This is particularly
      true of Ethiopian society where successive Ethiopian governments have
      abused individual Ethiopians with violence and random detentions without
      much resistance from the public. I am not in any way degrading the few
      courageous Ethiopians who sacrificed themselves fighting all brutal
      governments in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      including the current Ethiopian Government. 
      
       
       
      Thus
      the political picture away from the undercurrent of professional young
      Ethiopians back in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is not that encouraging. I have stated several times, almost ad nausium that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is suffering an extreme form of degenerative downward spiral of leadership
      i.e., an acute lack of institutionalized adequate training in leadership,
      since the insane destruction of the old Ethiopian Empire took place for
      twelve horrible years under the leadership of the Ottoman Turkish Empire
      sponsored Gragn Mohammed in the 16th Century. And within our
      reach of timeline, from the ascendance of Tewodros as Emperor of Ethiopia,
      both king-makers and leaders have qualitatively changed to a point where
      we have had �palace retainers� and treasonous individuals, drastically
      narrowing down the power base and alienating the general public, who had
      succeeded to become king-makers and kings/presidents and sat on the
      Imperial Throne of this ancient State to date. And centuries of civil
      strive, famine and lowered intake of calories, lack of necessary vitamins
      and minerals in the diet of slowly starving Ethiopians seems to have
      decapitated the vitality of the general population also. The ongoing slow
      starvation of the people of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      in itself is a liability for the entire population not just to those who
      are directly affected by such situation. The result of such compound
      problems is the current political leadership, including all opposition
      leaders, and political environment. 
      
       
       
      True
      to form, despite the fact of justified rebellious at their starting point,
      the leaders of the current Ethiopian Government suffer the same
      degenerative �downward spiral� as was the case with the previous
      leadership of Mengistu Hailemariam and his thugs. And the current
      �Opposition� political engine is also one aspect of the same
      degenerative �downward spiral.� It is fed by millions of unemployed
      and uneducated mass of people from Addis Ababa and other urban centers in
      addition to the fact of some of its leaders (including some in detention)
      harboring degenerative narrow ethnicism. In fact, one courageous
      journalist was �banished� from Diaspora-politics for pointing out the
      fact that the 2005 election was of dubious value because of the types of
      voters, and for characterizing the types of voters who participated in the
      election and demonstrations in unflattering terms similar to mine. No one
      is going to be able to bring back law and order ones such wild force
      breaks through existing governmental structure. There is every indication
      that the repeat of the �Red Terror� and �White Terror� is a clear
      possibility. If such degenerative ethnic based politics succeeds, this
      time the breakup of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      into mini-states will be a reality.     
      
       
       
      The
      reference to the �national interest� of 
      Ethiopia
      covers a wide and loose range of items that includes, in its definitional
      aspect, the �vital interest� of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      as well. In fact, most anything we can think of in connection with 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      may be considered as our national interest. At any rate, all items of
      �national interest� have varied magnitude and importance. Thus the
      scope of our national interest would easily cover a range of interests
      from the most serious (vital interest), such as going to war defending the
      nation against aggression on one end to winning a �soccer game� on the
      �frivolous� end of our national interest. There is no doubt that the
      type of ideology our leaders adopt is of �vital interest� to the
      survival of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . 
      
       
       
      What
      is the national �vital interest� of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      ? In answering such a question one may run the risk of freezing a dynamic
      process thereby providing the wrong analysis of the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . It is helpful for our discussion of the current crises in 
      Somalia
      and 
      Ethiopia
      to identify first the national interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . The territorial integrity of 
      Ethiopia
      is the most pressing national interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . This identification would encompass as well the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . It is seemingly an easy task to write about but monumentally difficult
      to undertake or maintain. 
      
       
       
      The
      foreign relation between states is enhanced to a high degree of positive
      results on the willingness of such governments for flexibility and
      compromise. One may surmise that all foreign relations between nations is
      more like a waltz with very many interchangeable partners rather than a
      solo act of display of the individual�s virtuosity. In other words there
      is a need of at least one other partner to have any form of international
      relations. In the abstract, one can reasonably assume that democratic
      nations would have more flexible and less dogmatic foreign policy. 
      However, in reality what we have is the opposite. It is a tragic
      situation to be boxed in a position that one does not fully support. 
      
       
       
      Maybe
      it is helpful first to identify the vital national interest of 
      Ethiopia
      in connection with the current Somali crises in order to be able to map
      out the corresponding security interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . There are a few foundational facts we all must acknowledge in order to
      draw a historical profile of the state of 
      Ethiopia
      that will help us understand what is the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . The current Somali crises in its proper context will illustrate to us
      some of the aspects of the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . First of all we must acknowledge the fact that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      does not exist in a vacuum. 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is found in a region that has been plagued with natural and man-made
      calamities for centuries. It is in the middle of an extremely hostile
      environment. No amount of wishful thinking would change that reality. 
      
       
       
      According
      to Fekade, 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      �s vital interest is in economic development. He informs us, �As a
      poor country sitting at the bottom of all indexes of socioeconomic
      development and a hellhole of poverty on this planet, 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      �s primary variable in the computation of its national interest is its
      economic wellbeing and the future of its economy.� [Emphasis mine]
      In other words, what is being claimed to be the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is a truism, in the abstract worth very little. No one disputes that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is in dire circumstances and needs to develop its economy on the double.
      The problem with such exclusive type of assertion is obvious, for any
      economist will tell us that peace and national security are the dual
      prerequisites for any economic development. One may sit on the richest oil
      fields and mineral reserves in the world, and yet be poor if there is no
      peace and security and no sufficient investment and know-how; I give you
      as examples 
      Iraq
      , the 
      Congo
      , 
      
      Namibia
      
      et cetera. 
      
       
       
      The
      debate or discourse on the Somali crises as detriment to the economic
      growth of Ethiopia itself is based on a fallacy, a fallacy logicians
      identify as �false dilemma,� in the sense that the solution to our
      economic problem some how has to displace our national security or vise-versa.
      The emphasis on economic development or political liberalization, by the
      critics of the Ethiopian Government�s involvement in 
      
      Somalia
      
      , is creating �false dilemma� of forced choices between national
      security and economic or political development. 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      �s economic development should not have been seen exclusive and in
      contradistinction to our national security interest. The right approach
      should have been geared toward the avoidance of such fallacies and focus
      on prioritizing steps to be taken in light of the immediacy of the
      problems and impacts of possible solutions rather than creating a logical
      loop even a god would have difficulties to overcome. 
      
       
       
      It
      is not the first time that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      �s vital interest has been discussed based on such fallacies of �false
      dilemma.� Often political issues are presented in �either/or� or
      �win or lose� format, thereby unnecessarily forcing people to take
      sides or adopt points of trajectories that they may not fully support. In
      a way, it is our own political immaturity that leads us into such forms of
      political confrontations and dilemmas. This is not to undermine situations
      where there need be clear cut confrontation of governmental authority,
      especially where there is violent suppression and killings by the
      government�s security or military forces as was the case in the 2005
      massacre of one hundred ninety seven Ethiopians documented opposition
      demonstrators by the forces under the command of Meles Zenawi. Of course,
      the magnitude of the violence is much higher than the one in the report.
      If the Commission had sufficient power to investigate all allegations of
      violence around the country, the murder of Ethiopians in the opposition
      would have been  more in
      thousands than in hundreds.  
      
       
       
      A
      good referential material to consider in this discussion is �the Report
      of the Monitoring Group on 
      
      Somalia
      
      pursuant to Security Council resolution 1676 (2006)� that was
      transmitted by the Group to the Chairman of the United Nations Security
      Council Committee on 16 October 2006. The report has carefully itemized
      the types of international involvements that gave dangerous military
      capacity to the rise of the Islamic Courts Union that can be easily shown
      to be against the vital interest of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . Different peoples in the region, who were once upon a time part of the
      Ottoman Turkish campaign against Ethiopia for centuries are now
      resurrected as independent States such as Djibouti, Egypt, Sudan, Saudi
      Arabia and joined by late comers such as �Eritrea� still smarting
      vengeance against Ethiopia. The Arab World was quick to label 
      Ethiopia
      as �a crusader� in cahoots with the 
      United States
      the moment it became clear that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      was not going to back down from supporting the legitimate Government of
      Somalia. The Islamic Courts declared Jihad against 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . It did not matter to them that 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      is a multi religious country with Moslems at least making up thirty to
      forty percent of the population, the majority being Christians. 
      
       
       
      The
      �Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia pursuant to Security Council
      Resolution 1676 (2006)� submitted by the Monitoring Group to the United
      Nations Security Council Committee Chairman on 16 October 2006 is a very
      important document to consider in connection with any analysis of the
      Somali crises. To write a critical analysis of the involvement of 
      Ethiopia
      in 
      
      Somalia
      
      without reading and deliberating on the Report of the Monitoring Group
      would lack credibility and authenticity. In the introduction of the Report
      the mandate given to the Group is itemized, which gives us some idea of
      the degree of concern of the international community about the Somali
      situation. It is to be recalled that the first international focus of the
      Security Council on an increasingly lawless 
      
      Somalia
      
      was in 1992. 
      
       
      
       
       
      The
      following extract is the mandate given to the Monitoring Group in 2006:
      �(a) To continue the tasks outlined in paragraphs 3 (a) to (c) of
      resolution 1587 (2005); b) To continue to investigate, in coordination
      with relevant international agencies, all activities, including in the
      financial, maritime and other sectors, which generate revenues used to
      commit arms embargo violations; (c) To continue to investigate any means
      of transport, routes, seaports, airports and other facilities used in
      connection with arms embargo violations;�.(i) To submit, for the
      Security Council�s consideration, through the Committee, a final report
      covering all the tasks set out above, no later than 15 days prior to the
      termination of the Monitoring Group�s mandate.�
      
       
      
       
       
      The
      members of the Monitoring Group were individuals with extensive experience
      and expertise: �Bruno Schiemsky (
      Belgium
      ), arms expert and Chairman; Melvin E. Holt, Jr. (
      United States of America
      ), arms expert; Harjit Kelley (
      Kenya
      ), maritime expert; and Joel Salek (
      
      Colombia
      
      ), finance expert.� Of late, the report by the Group on the number of
      foreign �Jihad� fighters who have joined up with the forces of the
      Islamic Courts has lost some degree of credibility due to the limited
      number of captured or killed foreign Jihad fighters. In fact, some writers
      claim that the Monitoring Group exaggerated the number of such foreign
      fighters to support the claim of the presence of terrorists in 
      Somalia
      , by the Government of the 
      
      United States
      
      .
      
       
      
       
       
      It
      is absurd for anyone to minimize the danger of Islamic fundamentalism in
      the region and specifically its threat to 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . Whether we consider past history or current affairs, Arabs unreasonably
      have always been hostile to 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . It is useless to try to placate such Arab nations and their governments
      by appealing to our common humanity. The only language that makes sense to
      belligerent governments/nations is military strength. And the foundation
      of a strong nation is the democratic structure of its government. It is
      often indicated as an example of that thesis how the government of the 
      Soviet Union
      , a totalitarian corrupt government, crumbled in the face of Western
      democratic system of governments and market based economic structure. 
      
       
      
       
       
      [I
      have a different take on the matter. I do happen to believe that the
      Soviet Union crumbled because of its own governance problems accelerated
      by a treasonous leader, Mikhail Gorbachev,
      a jaded man with a peasant�s fascination of Western gadgets, who
      compromised the rights of the people of the Union and forced a political
      change that ended up creating a heaven for carpetbaggers to acquire the
      wealth of the people of the Union for peanuts. Putin, the current
      President of Russia, is fighting a heroic battle to restore the looted
      wealth of the people of the former Union, and is paying for it by being
      vilified by the gangster 
      Western Media
      whose ownership is one and the same with the carpetbaggers. Nevertheless,
      the fact remains that the 
      Soviet Union
      did crumble.] 
      
       
      
       
       
      A
      democratic political structure and some progressive economic systems are
      vital interests of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . Thus, every Ethiopian has the singular obligation to promote a
      democratic political structure and some form of progressive economic
      system in 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      . If it is a matter of prioritization, political concerns need be
      considered first because such concerns directly affect the human rights of
      individuals. I do not believe the idea that without economic progress to
      speak of individual rights is meaningless, for what lead a starving
      individual to such condition often is political oppression. To argue what
      is needed most is something to eat not rhetoric of civil or individual
      rights is a form of argument that suffers from extreme form of
      reductionism. It is a populist appeal to the emotion rather than address
      the issue squarely as a failure of governmental policy. In other words,
      the problems of hunger and starvation are due to flawed superstructures
      caused by serious defects of governance affecting the base or foundational
      principles of individual human and civic rights. 
      
      
       
      
       
       
      Tecola
      W. Hagos 
      
      
      Washington
      
      DC
      
       
      February
      10, 2007 
      
       
       
      To be continued���
      
       
      PART TWO
      
       
      The
      Role of Religion in the Political Life of 
      
      Ethiopia
      
      : The Ethiopian Orthodox Church Holy Synod in Exile 
      
       
       
      PART
      THREE
      
       
      The
      Tragic Presidency of George W. Bush and Its Impact on the World
      
       
      
       
       
      PART FOUR
      
       
      The Two Alternatives: The Vital Interests of
      
      Ethiopia
      and the 
      
      United States
      
      
      
       
      
       
       
      
       
       
      
       
      
      
      
       
           |